Texas “Capacity Gap” Dashboard

Single strongest story hypothesis

Thesis: The decisive constraint in fast-growing Texas metros is institutional capacity: whether local systems can (1) approve and issue new construction permits, (2) supply enough skilled trades to build and maintain what’s approved, and (3) keep core utilities compliant while (4) job concentration pulls in workers and magnifies demand.

Hard-to-copy angle

This joins four different measurement systems into one narrative:

Headline contrast: Austin vs San Antonio (from the data in this bundle)

Interpretation: This pattern supports a single defensible claim: the places that appear “pro-growth” on paper can still hit a governance-capacity ceiling—especially for the hardest category (commercial new construction). The result is slower delivery, higher costs, and more strain on basic systems. The dashboard below makes the ceiling measurable, not rhetorical.

Visible limits: Houston’s file here is monthly residential totals (not individual permits) and Dallas’s file lacks application dates (so processing-time comparisons are not possible). Those gaps are shown in the KPI table.

Metro KPIs

LODES metrics are for 2023. Permit windows differ by city because each file covers a different period.
metro_city county population permit_window new_build_permits_per_1k_pop median_days_new_res median_days_new_com trade_licenses_per_10k net_jobs_2023 outflow_share_2023 water_serious_pop_share_pct
Houston Harris 4758579 2023-12-01–2024-12-01 NaN NaN NaN 141.5 465607 0.230172 0.25
Dallas Dallas 2603816 2019-08-29–2020-08-29 0.538 NaN NaN 155.0 658640 0.345321 0.00
San Antonio Bexar 2037344 2025-01-02–2026-01-02 2.115 8.0 266.0 119.0 54537 0.241638 0.02
Austin Travis 1307625 2022-10-20–2023-10-20 2.583 92.0 261.0 109.0 300721 0.309108 6.70