Thesis: The decisive constraint in fast-growing Texas metros is institutional capacity: whether local systems can (1) approve and issue new construction permits, (2) supply enough skilled trades to build and maintain what’s approved, and (3) keep core utilities compliant while (4) job concentration pulls in workers and magnifies demand.
This joins four different measurement systems into one narrative:
Interpretation: This pattern supports a single defensible claim: the places that appear “pro-growth” on paper can still hit a governance-capacity ceiling—especially for the hardest category (commercial new construction). The result is slower delivery, higher costs, and more strain on basic systems. The dashboard below makes the ceiling measurable, not rhetorical.
Visible limits: Houston’s file here is monthly residential totals (not individual permits) and Dallas’s file lacks application dates (so processing-time comparisons are not possible). Those gaps are shown in the KPI table.
| metro_city | county | population | permit_window | new_build_permits_per_1k_pop | median_days_new_res | median_days_new_com | trade_licenses_per_10k | net_jobs_2023 | outflow_share_2023 | water_serious_pop_share_pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | Harris | 4758579 | 2023-12-01–2024-12-01 | NaN | NaN | NaN | 141.5 | 465607 | 0.230172 | 0.25 |
| Dallas | Dallas | 2603816 | 2019-08-29–2020-08-29 | 0.538 | NaN | NaN | 155.0 | 658640 | 0.345321 | 0.00 |
| San Antonio | Bexar | 2037344 | 2025-01-02–2026-01-02 | 2.115 | 8.0 | 266.0 | 119.0 | 54537 | 0.241638 | 0.02 |
| Austin | Travis | 1307625 | 2022-10-20–2023-10-20 | 2.583 | 92.0 | 261.0 | 109.0 | 300721 | 0.309108 | 6.70 |